"Are you not aware that VTI is down 4.72% since New Year's Day? Time spent outside walking is precious time you should be spending panicking! " FACEBOOK

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What Should You Expect From the Market
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I believe that the future of stock market prices, as well as individual stock prices, will be the same as in the past. I believe, for reasons I can’t predict, when the market will have years it is up over 30% and years it is down over 30%. I believe that is the history of good and bad markets.

I also believe that the history of stock prices will be similar to the past. Many individual stocks will produce very mediocre returns while a very few will create remarkable returns. Dr. Bessenbinder’s study found that only 1 in 25 hit a bases loaded home run and the other 96% average 3% a year (the return of U.S. 30 day T-Bills).

Three times in my career, the S&P 500 has declined by over 50% and once the NASDAQ was down over 80%. Those all happened in the U.S. Of course there are plenty of examples overseas as well.

I aslo have no idea on what the differences in returns might be for the NASDAQ, S&P and small cap value companies. I know that during the 2000-2002 bear market years the S&P compounded at a negative 14.6%, the NASDAQ a negative 31.1% while the Fama-French Small Cap Value Index compounded at a positive 12.6%. What most investors forget, or never knew, the NASDAQ return, from 2000 to 2007 was a negative 10% a year. During that 2000-2007 period the Total Market Index lost 3.1% a year, the S&P 500 lost 3.6% a year and Small Cap Value Index made 15.3% a year!

We never know!!!!!

Q & A

Question: Can you recommend a good S&P and small cap value fund?

Answer: Our Boot Camp Series is our attempt to help do it yourself investors maximize their long term returns. At the end of the series we include our recommendations for the Best In Class ETFs for each of the 10 major equity asset classes. Two of those are for large cap blend (S&P 500) and small cap value. Here is a link to the podcast and video (video is easier to follow) as to how the ETFS were chosen and what they are.

Latest Podcast- Bootcamp 4- Fine Tuning Your Asset Allocation 2025 Update

⁠Watch Video here⁠

This is the 4th in a series of 9 Boot Camp videos/podcasts.

The previous three segments covered :

⁠Stocks vs. Bonds⁠
⁠The Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio⁠
⁠Sound Investing Portfolios.⁠

In this presentation Paul focuses on the differences between the risks and returns of different percentages stocks and bonds. He also discusses one table that mixes different percentages of the S&P 500 and small cap value.Here are a couple of videos that focus on small cap value.

⁠$13.83 Million? Yes Please! Paul Merriman’s Small Cap Value Strategy⁠

⁠The one asset class you must own

Testimonial

Thank you sincerely Paul for the great clarifying and educational questions, Daryl for your hard-earned reputational support, and to Chris for an amazing presentation of data-driven analysis and recommendations which I have been waiting for to prop me up with my own portfolio decisions and also help plan portfolios for my two 20-something nephews, in this swirling and grave uncertainty of our times. The high value and generosity that you three gentlemen give us time and again, is immeasurable and greatly appreciate

Bootcamp 4- Fine Tuning Your Asset Allocation 2025 Update

In This Edition What Should You Expect From the MarketQ&ALatest PodcastTestimonial

In This Edition
What Should You Expect From the Market
Q&A
Latest Podcast
Testimonial