"Nobody can know for sure how the war with Iran will affect investments. But I’m quite sure I know how it will affect investors. You will be blitzed with opportunistic marketing messages from the financial industry. You’re going to be urged to keep your money safe from war and inflation—or to capitalize on them—with these funds, this asset, that industry, these AI-driven recommendations, this secret set of trading signals, these proprietary algorithms. All for a small fee, of course.

With no end to the war in sight, investors should be on the defensive—not only against the bad news the war could bring, but also against the bad ideas the financial industry will be pitching.

The assets most likely to benefit during wartime are already expensive. If you didn’t buy an umbrella while the sun was shining, that protection will cost you dearly now."

Jason Zweig from Wall Street Journal “How to Trade the War: Avoid Gimmicky Strategies and Overheated Assets

In This Edition

#1 rule: “Stay the course.
Truth Teller Articles
Latest Podcast- DFA & Avantis ETFs: Building the Ultimate Lifetime Equity Strategy
Q & A Podcast- Q&A Deep Dive
Testimonial

After reading Jason Zweig’s warning, you can almost hear John C. Bogle calmly reminding investors of his #1 rule: “Stay the course.”

In times of uncertainty—war, inflation, political upheaval—the financial industry goes into overdrive. New strategies appear. Old fears resurface. And the pressure to do something becomes overwhelming.

Bogle’s message cuts through all of it.

Stay the course means having a sound plan—and refusing to abandon it when emotions run high.

It means continuing to invest when markets fall and resisting the urge to chase whatever is suddenly “working.” It means understanding that uncertainty is not a flaw in investing—it is the price of admission.

Zweig warns that the cost of “protection” rises after danger appears. Bogle would add that the cost of abandoning your plan is even higher. Investors who jump from strategy to strategy often lock in losses, miss recoveries, and pay unnecessary fees along the way.

The great irony of investing is that success requires doing less, not more.

A disciplined investor accepts that markets will be unpredictable, headlines will be alarming, and experts will disagree. But rather than reacting, they rely on diversification, low costs, and time.

That is what “stay the course” demands: not brilliance, but discipline.

Because in the end, long-term investment success doesn’t belong to those who forecast the future.

It belongs to those who refuse to be shaken by it.

Upcoming Events: 2026 Financial Education Series

Bainbridge Island Senior Community Center – Dining Room

I’m especially excited about this year’s Financial Literacy Series. I’ll have the privilege of interviewing some of the most respected teachers, authors, and speakers in the field of financial literacy. It’s truly a thrill to sit down with Larry Swedroe, Christine Benz, Bill Bernstein, and Mike Piper to explore some of the most important financial questions of our lives.

Each conversation will run about 45 to 60 minutes, followed by time for your questions.

If you have a question you’d like us to address, please send it to me at paul@paulmerriman.com—and let me know if you’d like it directed to a particular guest.

Here’s what the folks at the Bainbridge Community Foundation have put together about our speakers, along with all the details on how to participate. You’ll also find a simple way to sign up so you don’t miss any of these conversations. I hope you’ll join us—it should be both informative and inspiring.

Truth Tellers

The Worst Asset Class For the Next 5 Years Ben Carlson

I think you will find the historical perspective of Ben Carlson’s recent article of interest.

Should You Pay Off Debt or Invest Jim Dahle

Should You Pay Off Debt or Invest? Is one of the classic questions that may lead to remarkable differences over time. Here is what Jim Dahle has to say on the topic:

DFA & Avantis ETFs: Building the Ultimate Lifetime Equity Strategy

Paul Merriman is dedicated to helping do-it-yourself investors build portfolios they can stick with for life. In this episode, he shares what he believes is the closest thing to a perfect long-term equity strategy he's ever seen.

Paul traces the evolution of index investing — from John Bogle's cap-weighted S&P 500 funds to the academic research of Fama and French, whose factor-based work showed that small cap value, large cap value, and other equity asset classes have historically outperformed the broad market over time.

For years, the best factor-based funds from Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) were only available through select advisors. That changed when Avantis launched its ETF lineup in 2019, followed by DFA's own ETFs — putting institutional-quality, factor-based investing within reach of every self-directed investor.

Paul introduces a recommended ETF list spanning 10 equity asset classes across both fund families, explains the key differences between DFA and Avantis, and makes the case for owning both. He also covers where to buy them and why Fidelity's fractional shares make it easy to start with any dollar amount.

Key topics:

Factor-based vs. traditional index funds

Accessing DFA and Avantis ETFs

The case for owning both

Simplifying rebalancing with M1 Finance

The Q&A Paul references was recorded separately.

New DFA and Avantis Recommendations

Q & A Deep Dive

Q&A Highlights

How does a 4-fund portfolio compare to a 10-fund portfolio? 00:44
What is the best way to invest for a child’s future? 05:46
Is it too late to use a diversified strategy like the 10-fund portfolio at age 50? 11:05
Can I create and test my own custom portfolio using your tools? 16:29
How should I invest during periods of inflation or uncertainty? 19:04
What are some recommended fund options available at Schwab? 23:51
Is a portfolio combining large-cap value and small-cap blend a good approach? 25:30
Are there good alternatives to intermediate-term bonds? 27:58
Who are some trustworthy voices in personal finance and investing? 31:36
What is your opinion on separately managed accounts (SMAs)? 33:43

Key Takeaway
Long-term investment success is driven by asset allocation, discipline, and consistency—not complexity. A simple, well-structured portfolio that you can maintain through market cycles is often the most effective approach.

⁠Listen to the individual questions here. ⁠

Testimonial

I just finished your Flexible Distribution Workshop and have a few questions. First, I want to say how much joy I have gotten from your videos and all the work you have done for the financial community.

I am definitely drinking the Kool-Aid and am feeling more empowered than ever to make some changes. My wife and I are in our early 50's and have been fortunate enough to step away from work. We are in the over saver category from the blessings of great careers and a liquidity event in selling a business. The information you provide, as well as others, has given us the confidence to face a hopefully long retirement window with confidence.

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In This Edition #1 rule: “Stay the course.Truth Teller ArticlesLatest Podcast- DFA & Avantis ETFs: Building the Ultimate Lifetime Equity StrategyQ & A Podcast- Q&A Deep DiveTestimonial

In This Edition

#1 rule: “Stay the course.
Truth Teller Articles
Latest Podcast- DFA & Avantis ETFs: Building the Ultimate Lifetime Equity Strategy
Q & A Podcast- Q&A Deep Dive
Testimonial