“You can’t tune out the massive industry of investment prediction unless you want to: otherwise you’ll never have the fortitude to stop listening. But if you can plug your ears to every attempt (by anyone) to predict what the markets will do, you will outperform nearly every other investor alive over the long run. Only the mantra of ‘I don’t know and I don’t care’ will get you there.”

— Jason Zweig

In This Edition

›Join Me at the 2026 Bogleheads Conference

›Are We Watching History Repeat Itself?

›Truth Teller of the Week: Mike Piper

›This Week’s Podcast: Is It Possible That Factor Investing Won’t Work?

›From a Listener

From Paul

Join Me at the 2026 Bogleheads Conference

I’m delighted to share some news I’ve been looking forward to: registration is now open for the 2026 Bogleheads Conference, and I’ll be there.

The conference runs from noon Friday, November 13, through noon Sunday, November 15, at the Green Valley Ranch Resort and Spa in Henderson, Nevada — a short ride from the Las Vegas airport. If you’ve never attended, this is one of the finest gatherings of evidence-based investors anywhere, put on by the John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy and run “at cost” so as many people as possible can attend. Friday features two tracks of Bogleheads University — “Bogleheads 101” for the fundamentals and “Bogleheads 501” for advanced topics. Saturday brings general sessions plus breakouts for accumulators and for those nearing or in retirement, and the weekend wraps up with Sunday sessions and a breakfast open to attendees and their guests.

Several of our Truth Tellers will be there — including Christine Benz, Bill Bernstein, Ben Carlson, Dr. Jim Dahle and Mike Piper — and every one of them will be willing to answer your questions. That kind of access, in person, is rare. There are only 600 slots and they go on a first-come, first-served basis, so if you’re interested, I wouldn’t wait.

And I look forward to meeting with any of our readers and listeners who will be there. Just drop me an email at paul@paulmerriman.com and we’ll find time to visit.

Conference Details & Registration

Worth Reading

Are We Watching History Repeat Itself?

As an advocate for buy-and-hold investing, I don’t spend much time trying to predict whether the market will rise or fall next month or next year. History has taught me that those predictions are rarely reliable. But I do believe investors benefit from understanding the facts behind the headlines.

That’s why I found Fidelity’s recent article, “5 Signs of an AI Bubble to Watch For,” worth reading. Rather than making bold predictions, the authors compare today’s market with the late-1990s technology bubble using measurable data. They examine five areas investors should watch: earnings growth, earnings quality, valuations, corporate capital spending, and interest rates.

One lesson stands out: today’s environment shares some similarities with 1999, but it also differs in important ways. Unlike many internet companies of that era, today’s technology leaders are generating substantial revenues, profits, and cash flow. That doesn’t guarantee future returns, but it does suggest the comparison isn’t as simple as many headlines imply.

For long-term investors, the best response is probably the same as it has always been: stay diversified, maintain realistic expectations, and remember that successful investing depends far more on discipline than on predicting the next bubble.

Truth Teller of the Week

Mike Piper

With the Bogleheads Conference on the calendar, this week’s Truth Teller is a natural choice: Mike Piper, who serves on the board of the John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy and will be among the familiar faces in Henderson this November.

Mike is a CPA and the author of the Oblivious Investor blog, along with a shelf of short books that explain taxes, Social Security, and investing in plain English — each one readable in an afternoon and worth far more than its price. But his greatest gift to investors may be one he gives away for free: Open Social Security, his calculator that helps you find the claiming strategy likely to produce the most lifetime benefit. For a decision most people make exactly once, with tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars at stake, Mike built the tool the industry never did — and asks nothing in return.

That combination — deep expertise, plain language, and no conflicts of interest — is exactly what we mean by a Truth Teller.

Meet Mike Piper

This Week’s Podcast

Is It Possible That Factor Investing Won’t Work?

A longtime listener wrote in after watching a Ben Felix video making the point that factor investing may not beat the S&P 500 by the end of an investor’s lifetime — and could even do worse. His question was simple: is factor investing really worth the effort?

My answer turned out to be two answers, so I’m splitting it into two episodes. This week is about the thinking. Next week is about the evidence — including new data Daryl Bahls just sent over.

I also try something new: using AI to canvas the writings of our Truth Tellers and surface what they would say about this exact question. What emerges is a point they all agree on — good decisions do not guarantee good outcomes, and bad decisions sometimes produce wonderful ones. Bill Bernstein, Larry Swedroe, Ben Felix, Mike Piper, Christine Benz, Rob Berger, Jim Dahle and Jack Bogle each frame the same distinction: expected returns are not realized returns, and probability is not certainty.

Investing is one long series of forks in the road — save or spend, stocks or bonds, index or active, buy-and-hold or market timing — and none of them come with a guarantee. What they come with is a probability. The job is to choose thoughtfully, accept the uncertainty, and have the courage to stay the course while the evidence still supports the plan.

Meet the Truth Tellers: paulmerriman.com/truth-tellers

▶ Listen Now

From a Listener

“As a long time listener and follower I very much appreciate the work of you and your foundation. I particularly like the aspects that help to frame expectations of what the future may be like if it rhymes with the past. I appreciate you sharing your truth tellers. I’ve been familiar with some already, but have recently been bingeing George Sisti’s past newsletters. Nothing entirely earth shattering, but always useful to revisit key aspects that are the foundation for the path we ascribe to.”

— B.S.

Thanks for listening, for sharing this information with others, and for your generous donations. And please keep getting the free We’re Talking Millions link into the hands of people who might be helped.

All the best to you and your family,
Paul Merriman

From Paul Merriman

Resources & Ways to Connect

Free Book Download

Get Paul's latest book — completely free. Thousands of investors have used it to build a better financial future.

📚 Download Free Book

Latest Podcast

Sound Investing — practical, no-nonsense financial wisdom you can act on today.

🎙️ Listen Now

YouTube Channel

Hundreds of videos on investing, retirement planning, and building long-term wealth.

▶️ Watch on YouTube

Follow on TikTok

Short, powerful investing tips delivered daily. Share with the next generation of investors.

🎵 Follow on TikTok

Support the Foundation

Your donation helps us continue providing free financial education to investors everywhere. Every dollar makes a difference.

❤️ Make a Donation