"Most people might just as well buy a share of the whole market, which pools all the information, than delude themselves into thinking they know something the market doesn't.“ Merton Miller

In This Edition
May Events
Latest Podcast
Testimonial

This is a huge month for our Foundation. We are always looking for opportunities to reach new students but our presentations in May give us some of the best opportunities of the year.

The last week in May I will have a 4 chances to teach at Western Washington University. They include a 2 hour class to students in a personal finance course, a one hour presentation to members of the Finance Management Association, a presentation to a group of

university staff from the College of Business and Economics that would like my comments about the best use of their 401k plan investments and the biggest opportunity of all, a chance to speak to over 200 graduating seniors.

In that presentation I will offer my advice on how to manage student debt, how to start working toward your financial goals even on a limited paycheck, and how to work your way toward retiring with millions!

I am also speaking to a small investment club in May. The title and topics:

Building a Truly Diversified Portfolio for Long-Term Success

Investing Beliefs for Long-Term Success
✅ What fundamental principles lead to the best long-term returns?
✅ Why do asset allocation and diversification matter?
✅ How should investors think about market cycles and persistence of premiums?
✅ Should investors look beyond traditional fixed-income instruments for downside protection of core portfolio?
Structuring a Diversified Portfolio
✅ What does true diversification look like beyond just U.S. large caps?
✅ Why do index funds work, and could they eventually fail?
How much of a portfolio should be actively managed vs. passive?
✅ The Case for Small-Cap Value
✅ What historical evidence supports small-cap value as part of a diversified portfolio?
✅ How should investors allocate to small-cap value today
Looking Ahead – The Future of Investing
✅ What are the best tools to assess future returns?
✅ What impact will AI have on investing strategies?

I mention this presentation as I am happy to present it to your investment club or a group of investors in your office. Let me know how I can help. paul@paulmerriman.com

Latest Podcast- Market Timing vs. Buy and Hold

"Buy and hold investors don’t just win on average returns— they win by avoiding the behavioral landmines that sabotage long-term success.” Paul Merriman

In this podcast Paul addresses one of the most important investment decisions a do it yourself investor will make.

Paul opens the discussion with comments from a ⁠Forbes article⁠ from 2008 that discusses Warren Buffett’s market timing decision he made to get totally out of the market in 1969 and back aboard in 1974.

The podcast (with the help of Chatgpt, includes a list of 10 common reasons market timing doesn’t work for amateur investors.

1. Missing the best days

2. Emotional decision-making

3. Perfect timing is impossible

4. Higher costs and taxes

5. Volatility is high during recovery

6. Recency Bias

7. Focus on noise, not timing signals

8. Overconfidence

9. Loss of Compound Growth

10. Data shows long-term investing wins

Paul challenges AI that there are many emotional disadvantages with timing.

The most important performance and non performance hurdles:

1. Decision-making: Timing requires lots of work and buy and hold almost none.

2. Mistakes: Market timing suffers lots of mistakes and buy & hold rarely wrong in the long term.

3. Emotional Toll: Timing has lots of emotional challenges and buy & hold is more peaceful.

4. Behavioral Risks: Timing has lots of behavioral risks and buy & hold is simple.

5. Time Commitment: Timing takes time and action and buy & hold is rarely touched.

6. Expenses: Costs and taxes are both lower with buy & hold.

7. Timers must be more resilient with many decisions being wrong.

8. Financial Results: A few timers may perform well but all buy & holders are likely to have “won”.

Testimonial

Thank you so much for all the helpful and informative videos you put out. They have been a great source of wisdom.
T.D.

Market Timing vs. Buy and Hold

Financial Literacy and Mastering the Million Dollar Decisions

Saving for retirement is easier than you think

In This Edition May EventsLatest PodcastTestimonial

In This Edition
May Events
Latest Podcast
Testimonial

Would you like me to speak to your investment club?