"The ordinary human being does not live long enough to draw any substantial benefit from his own experience. And no one, it seems, can benefit by the experiences of others. Being both a father and a teacher, I know we can teach our children nothing...Each must learn its lesson anew." Albert Einstein

In This Edition
Lifetime Investment Calculator Updated
AAII- November 8, 2025
Latest Podcast
Testimonial

Lifetime Investment Calculator Updated

We’re excited to announce that the Merriman Financial Education Foundation has released an updated version of its Lifetime Investment Calculator, now powered by 55 years of historical market data (1970-2024) and enhanced features designed to deepen your long-term investing insights.

With the update launched on October 28 2025, the tool now defaults to a 55-year duration and includes more flexible settings for contributions, distributions and equity-to-fixed-income allocation.

This updated calculator empowers do-it-yourself investors to model a wide range of scenarios — choose from 11 well-known investment strategies, adjust your starting year, set contribution or withdrawal amounts, select real vs. nominal dollars, and test portfolios across up to 200 years by looping through history.

Whether you’re exploring how your allocation might have held up through past downturns or testing future distributions, this tool offers a hands-on way to bring the foundation’s research alive.

I’m very excited about being back in front of the Puget Sound Chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). I’m not sure how many times I have addressed the group. Maybe 7 or 8 times. I do remember the first time was in 1984.

AAII members have a commitment to understanding the historical evidence of what drives investment success and failure. I think they will find this presentation right up their alley.

Here is a list of some of the topics I will address:

The myths and realities of SCV companies and SCV funds
Three big differences between traditional and non-traditional index funds.
The best performing S&P 500 fund for over 25 years (no it isn’t Vanguard’s).
What investors should never add SCV to their portfolio?
Why most SCV investors will fail to get the SCV premium.
How to tell the best from the worst SCV ETFs.
Vanguard vs. Avantis vs. Dimensional ETFs.
The three most important lessons from past returns?
How long do past returns need to be to be statistically meaningful?
What Total Market Index Fund is built to produce the best long term return?
The best Target Date Fund: Better than Vanguard, Fidelity or Schwab
What Merriman Portfolio has the highest expected unit of return per unit of risk

Donations are not required but they are appreciated, as AAII is an organization dedicated to helping do it yourself investors do better.

Latest Podcast- Staying the Course — Insights on Reasonable & Unreasonable Portfolios, Quilt Charts & 2025 Returns

In this episode, Paul dives into one of the most important themes in long-term investing: staying the course, even when individual asset classes deliver unexpected short-term results. Whether you’re a seasoned DIY investor or still building confidence, Paul shares timely lessons to help you make better decisions—and support others who rely on your guidance.

Paul also previews his ⁠upcoming presentation for the AAII Puget Sound Chapter⁠, where he’ll take one of the deepest dives yet into Daryl Balls’ latest quilt charts, the Sound Investing portfolios, and the vital differences between traditional and non-traditional index funds.

You’ll hear Paul discuss insights from two of the industry’s leading “truth tellers”:

• Jim Dahle (The White Coat Investor) and his Bogleheads presentation on reasonable vs. unreasonable portfolios

• Dr. Bill Bernstein, and why staying disciplined may be investors’ greatest lifelong challenge

Along the way, Paul reviews 10-month, year-to-date performance for the Best-in-Class ETF portfolios—including the 10-fund, 4-fund, and 2-fund strategies—and explains why the surprising 2025 return patterns are completely normal.

Key topics include:

Why some equity asset classes “disappoint” this year—and why that’s expected
The resurgence of international value, small international, and emerging markets
How Chris Pedersen’s 4-Fund Worldwide strategy kept pace with the 10-Fund
The powerful role of non-traditional index funds (DFA & Avantis)
Why small-cap value’s recent struggles shouldn’t discourage long-term investors
How to access DFA-style factor premiums through today’s ETFs
The importance of keeping an investing approach simple, reasonable, and durable
Why staying the course—not forecasting—is the true key to long-term success

Paul also shares personal updates about moving back to Bainbridge Island and reflects on what it means to serve a community of dedicated DIY investors.

If you know someone who would benefit from this work, please share this episode. And don’t miss the links in the show notes—including Jim Dahle’s video, portfolio references, quilt charts, and upcoming AAII registration details.

Thank you for listening—and all the best to you and your family.

Testimonial

"Thanks for the knowledge that you and your organization have shared with me and my family over the past 20 years. You have made an incredible difference in the whole family finances."

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Turns out, people love our new investing reels — they’re getting a lot of attention! If you want to catch them before they hit YouTube or Facebook, follow us on TikTok. That’s where they drop first!

@paulamerriman2012

Staying the Course — Insights on Reasonable & Unreasonable Portfolios, Quilt Charts & 2025 Returns

The Merriman Financial Education Foundation: Plans, Priorities & Lessons for 2026

How to retire with more money and greater peace of mind

In This EditionLifetime Investment Calculator UpdatedAAII- November 8, 2025Latest PodcastTestimonial

In This Edition
Lifetime Investment Calculator Updated
AAII- November 8, 2025
Latest Podcast
Testimonial

Upcoming presentation the best of the year- updated Calculator