Make and take

"In a world of automation, AI and outsourcing, what exactly do we do for a living?

Perhaps we make decisions.

And what’s in short supply?

A willingness to take responsibility.

If you choose to sign up to make and take, there have never been more tools or more leverage available to you."

Seth Godin

In This Edition
Early Release: H2a 2026 Update
Truth Teller Ben Carlson- It Happened Again
Truth Teller Ben Carlson- Is a House Still a Good Investment Right Now?
Latest Podcast: Sound Investing Q&A: ETFs, Portfolios, Risk, and Retirement
Testimonial

Early Release: H2a 2026 Update

In the coming months, Daryl, Chris, and I will be updating more than 200 tables, graphs, and charts—each one extended by another year of results. Among them, few generate more interest than Table H2, especially when it’s reviewed alongside Table H3a.

I’ve spent many hours teaching investors how to use these tables—not to forecast the future, but to better understand the past—and to help answer one of the biggest questions every investor faces: What portfolio is right for me?

For our more savvy students, the latest version is available now, so they can dig in and draw their own conclusions—no need to wait until the 2026 Boot Camp to revisit an old favorite.

Truth Teller Ben Carlson- It Happened Again

Truth Tellers Helps Give Perspective to “Normal” is headline for short comment before link to article.

Last week’s podcast addressed many “normal" aspects of 2025 returns. Those included the wide range of returns for the 10 equity asset classes that are in the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio (a low of 1.9% to a high of 49.6).

In this recent article by Ben Carlson he focuses on another “normal” that investors must accept as part of the process of building a portfolio of any equity asset class. That normal is the size of the annual peak to trough drawdown. Ben’s graph only goes back to 1990 but even with that relatively short period I think you will get the idea.

The question that we will take a look at is the impact on the size of the annual drawdowns with broader equity asset class diversification. Stay Tuned!

Truth Teller Ben Carlson- Is a House Still a Good Investment Right Now?

If you have a someone in your family considering buying a house right now but not sure whether this is a good time, I suggest you share this article from Truth Teller, Ben Carlson.

For those who are interested in comparing the annual returns of the stock market, you might find table H3a useful for the period 1970-2024.

Latest Podcast- Sound Investing Q&A: ETFs, Portfolios, Risk, and Retirement

In this week’s Sound Investing podcast, Paul Merriman answers 14 listener questions that get right to the heart of smart investing — how to choose ETFs, how to build portfolios, how much risk to take, and how to think about withdrawals in retirement.

A consistent theme runs through every answer: there is no single “best” investment — only what’s appropriate for you.

1. What is the best ETF for long-term investors, and why does the answer depend on the asset class and the investor rather than a single “best” choice?

Timestamp: ~00:45

Paul explains that while the best S&P 500 ETF often comes down to lowest expense ratio, determining the best ETF across asset classes (especially small-cap value, international, and factor funds) is far more nuanced. This is why Sound Investing emphasizes portfolio construction over predictions.

Boot Camp (portfolio education): https://paulmerriman.com/bootcamp/

2. What is a good portfolio for a given year (such as 2026), and why doesn’t Sound Investing try to predict what will perform best in any particular year?

Timestamp: ~07:09
Paul emphasizes that neither he nor the Sound Investing team attempts to predict annual winners. Short-term outcomes are essentially coin flips (small vs. large, value vs. growth, U.S. vs. international).

Sound Investing Portfolios: https://paulmerriman.com/sound-investing-portfolios/

3. If someone has $1 million invested in stocks and bonds, how much can they withdraw each year for the portfolio to last 33 years?

Timestamp: ~10:54
Paul walks through historical examples showing how withdrawal rate, inflation, and sequence of returns dramatically affect outcomes—including cases where investors end with millions or run out of money entirely.

4. How would a portfolio focused on Canadian companies compare to one primarily invested in the S&P 500?

Timestamp: ~15:40
Paul discusses Canadian investors who are heavily concentrated outside the S&P 500 and explains why factor-based diversification may offer better long-term exposure.

Ben Felix (Canada-focused factor investing): https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/ben-felix-model-portfolio/

5. Where can I find the components of the classic 10-fund portfolio?

Timestamp: ~17:30
Paul directs listeners to the Ultimate Buy & Hold Portfolio, which explains why each asset class is included and what it contributes to long-term results.

Ultimate Buy & Hold Portfolio: https://paulmerriman.com/ultimate-buy-and-hold-portfolio/

6. Since ETFs and mutual funds are different, why doesn’t Sound Investing offer a best-in-class mutual fund list?

Timestamp: ~19:07
Paul explains the historical evolution of Sound Investing portfolios and why ETFs became the preferred vehicle once smaller, more flexible portfolios were developed.

7. How does AVUS (the Avantis U.S. Equity Fund) compare to Fidelity’s FNILX fund?

Timestamp: ~22:13
Paul explains how to compare funds using Morningstar’s style box, showing that AVUS, FNILX, and Vanguard Total Market funds hold very different asset mixes—leading to different returns.

Morningstar Fund Comparison Tools: https://www.morningstar.com/

8. Will you be publishing the 2026 tables and updated research?

Timestamp: ~27:44
Paul confirms that 200+ tables are being updated, including the Ultimate Buy & Hold Study and fine-tuning tables, with new data added.

Boot Camp (tables & studies): https://paulmerriman.com/bootcamp/

9. What is a good source for learning about REITs (real estate investment trusts)?

Timestamp: ~28:30
Paul recommends starting with fund providers like Vanguard and Avantis, but also highlights Wikipedia as a surprisingly thorough source for REIT history and tax structure.

REIT overview: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_investment_trust

10. What do I need to do to successfully self-manage my mutual fund or ETF portfolio?

Timestamp: ~30:00
Paul outlines the basics: commission-free platforms, disciplined allocation, rebalancing decisions, and understanding asset-class exposure.

Sound Investing Portfolios: https://paulmerriman.com/sound-investing-portfolios/

11. How should investors allocate funds when contributing weekly to the Ultimate Buy & Hold portfolio?

Timestamp: ~34:51
Paul explains a rotating contribution approach—funding one asset class at a time—which naturally spreads risk and reduces the need for early rebalancing.

12. Do you have best-in-class ETF recommendations for Canadian investors?

Timestamp: ~37:07

Paul reiterates that Canadian investors should follow Ben Felix, whose work is among the most current and evidence-based for that market.

Ben Felix: https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/ben-felix-model-portfolio/

13. If I am retired at 61 with a pension covering expenses and $900,000 invested, how should I invest my retirement portfolio?

Timestamp: ~38:01
Paul explains that when income needs are covered, portfolio decisions should be driven by risk tolerance, not return chasing. Fine-tuning tables help investors see potential drawdowns.

Fine-Tuning Tables (Boot Camp): https://www.paulmerriman.com/fine-tuning-your-asset-allocation-2025-update

14. What portfolio is recommended for someone in their 30s investing for long-term retirement?

Timestamp: ~42:47
Paul strongly favors all-equity portfolios for investors in their 30s, emphasizing diversification across asset classes and delaying fixed income until later in life.

Testimonial

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J.U.

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In This EditionEarly Release: H2a 2026 UpdateTruth Teller Ben Carlson- It Happened AgainTruth Teller Ben Carlson- Is a House Still a Good Investment Right Now?Latest Podcast: Sound Investing Q&A: ETFs, Portfolios, Risk, and RetirementTestimonial

In This Edition
Early Release: H2a 2026 Update
Truth Teller Ben Carlson- It Happened Again
Truth Teller Ben Carlson- Is a House Still a Good Investment Right Now?
Latest Podcast: Sound Investing Q&A: ETFs, Portfolios, Risk, and Retirement
Testimonial