“You can’t tune out the massive industry of investment prediction unless you want to; otherwise you’ll never have the fortitude to stop listening. But if you can plug your ears to every attempt (by anyone) to predict what the markets will do, you will outperform nearly every other investor alive over the long run. Only the mantra of ‘I don’t know and I don’t care’ will get you there.”

Jason Zweig

In This Edition

A Word From Paul — Finishing Our Baltic Sea Cruise
The Lowest Consumer Sentiment Ever — Ben Carlson
This Week’s Podcast — Paul & Ben Carlson on Full Disclosure
Truth Teller of the Week — Mike Piper
From a Listener

A Word From Paul

Finishing Our Baltic Sea Adventure

Paul and Zan aboard the Clio on the Baltic Sea

Zan and I are just finishing our Overseas Adventure Travel Baltic Sea cruise. The seven-country trip was a wonderful break from our busy life on Bainbridge Island. The Clio has 89 passengers and 60 crew. Twenty-one of us are from Bainbridge Island, thanks to the hard work of David and Cindy Harrison.

Onboard, I’ve started my mornings at my normal time and spent two to three hours catching up on the news and reading emails. And of course I’ve answered many of them — that’s the most fun I have in my regular life.

I also read many articles from our Truth Tellers. The following article by Ben Carlson was one of the most interesting. As I’ve noted many times, there is always a list of good news as well as bad news. Ben’s article looks at the present good news/bad news situation: a very high stock market alongside a very low level of consumer sentiment. And it’s not just low — it is the lowest monthly reading since the Index of Consumer Sentiment began in 1952.

I suspect most of you will appreciate his final advice.

Worth Reading

The Lowest Consumer Sentiment Ever

The Lowest Consumer Sentiment Ever by Ben Carlson

In this piece, Ben Carlson takes on one of the strangest setups in recent memory — markets near record highs while the people in them feel worse than they have in seven decades. It’s a clear-eyed look at why the headlines and the data don’t always agree, and what a long-term investor should do about it. Don’t skip his closing advice.

Read Ben’s Article →

This Week’s Podcast

Two Truth Tellers, One Mic: Paul Joins Ben Carlson on Full Disclosure

Paul Merriman and Ben Carlson on Full Disclosure

Recently I had a rare treat — sitting down with Roben Farzad on Full Disclosure alongside Ben Carlson, one of the clearest thinkers writing about markets today. Roben called it a “truth teller tandem,” and it was every bit as fun as it sounds.

We covered a lot of ground: whether 100 years of S&P 500 history actually means anything, why diversifying into small-cap value and international can pay off over a lifetime, how the barriers to investing have all but disappeared since I came into the business in 1966, and what inflation, bonds, and the FIRE movement look like today. Ben’s new book, Risk and Reward, is the thread running through it all — and his closing thought about truly knowing yourself as an investor is one I hope stays with you.

► Listen Now

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Truth Teller of the Week

A Voice You Can Trust: Mike Piper

Mike Piper, Truth Teller of the Week

One of the most important services we provide is an introduction to some of the most trusted Truth Tellers on the internet — educators whose work is built around helping you make better financial decisions, free of conflicts of interest. We’re not paid to recommend them. Our only reward is knowing you’re getting guidance you can actually trust.

This week’s Truth Teller is Mike Piper.

Mike is a CPA who has built his whole career on one simple idea: complicated financial topics can be explained in plain English. His Oblivious Investor writing and his short, no-nonsense books strip away the jargon and get straight to what actually matters — whether that’s taxes, index funds, or how to think about your retirement accounts.

He’s also the mind behind OpenSocialSecurity.com — a free, open-source calculator that helps you find the smartest time to claim Social Security. No sales pitch, no conflicts of interest, just a genuinely useful tool. That’s exactly the kind of work that earns a spot on our Truth Tellers list.

Meet Mike Piper → | See all our Truth Tellers →

From a Listener

A note from a listener

“I listen to and read your stuff religiously. Much admiration for how you look out for the little guy — and how you draw retirement-age joy out of education.”

From Paul Merriman

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The highest market, the gloomiest mood