"Science has not yet mastered prophecy. We predict too much for the next year and yet far too little for the next 10." Neil Armstrong

In This Edition
How to Predict a Recession
What’s the best time to retire? The answer is easy.
Latest Podcast
Testimonial

I regularly get emails suggesting it’s time to do something (buy or sell) due to a prediction or concern the investor has about an economic event that will almost certainly have a major impact on the market. Most often it has to do with interest rates, the deficit or an upcoming recession. Soon it will become the outcome of the election.

I think Ben Carlson’s article on “How to Predict a Recession” is worthy of the 4 minutes it will take you to read.

How to invest money while saving for retirement? This tool may help.

Plus, buried in the article is a link to an earlier article (June 22, 2022) entitled, “Timing a Recession vs. Timing the Stock Market.”

For those who won’t take the time to read these articles here is the bottom line:

"It’s important to remember even if you knew the exact start and end dates of the next recession, it wouldn’t necessarily help you in determining the path of the stock market in the meantime.

Timing the economy is hard.

Timing the stock market is harder.”

And if you are looking to the details here is one worth studying:

Here is a look at every recession since WWII along with S&P 500 returns in the 6 months leading up to the recession, during the actual recession itself and then one, three, five years and ten years from the end of the recession:

Latest MarketWatch Article- How to invest money while saving for retirement? This tool may help.

Lots of readers want help with calculating their retirement finances beyond the tables that I use in order to compare various plans for accumulating money, and later for taking it out as retirement income.

This column will show you how to make your own table based on your own data and assumptions. While this won’t help you predict the future, it will help you try out various scenarios using our suggested portfolios.

This is part eight in a series of articles I think of as boot camp for investors 2024. Read article.

Latest Podcast/Video- Wonderful Morgan House Interview!

I just finished watching Morgan Housel’s interview on “What You Need to Master (And Avoid) to Get Rich, Stay Rich, and Build Wealth." I believe you will get more out of this interview than what I recorded for my weekly podcast.

As I watched I realized he was answering questions you ask, or should be asking, about the nature of successful investing.

I hope you will use this time to listen or watch Morgan. I’m glad I did! I hope the list of topics below will motivate you to listen. I’ll be back with you next week.

00:00 - Intro
01:20 - Risk and income
04:14 - On luck and skill
06:44 - Buffett's secret strategy
09:02 - The one trait you need to build wealth
12:54 - Housel's capital allocation strategy
13:22 - Index funds, explained
17:33 - Expectations and moving goalposts
18:51 - Your house: asset or liability?
24:13 - Money lies we believe
28:46 - How to avoid status games
31:38 - Money rules from parents
36:49 - Rich vs. wealthy
38:20 - Housel's influential role models
39:22 - Why are rich people miserable?
42:33 - How success sows the seeds of average performance
46:24 - On risk
47:33 - Making money, spending money, saving money
49:24 - How the Vanderbilt's squandered their wealth
1:00:45 - How to manage your expectations
01:03:00 - How to talk to kids about money
01:06:26 - The biggest risk to capitalism
01:10:30 - The magic of compounding
01:12:52 - How Morgan reads
01:19:16 - How to tell the best story
01:21:16 - How Morgan writes
01:32:16 - Parting wisdom and thoughts on success

Testimonial

"The tools and content you provide have changed my life! In particular, the quilt charts, the lifetime investment calculator, and the summaries from Chris on the 2 funds for life strategy have been most impactful – along with the many videos and podcasts that explore real questions, with real, specific answers. I have passed on your content, along with some demos to everyone I know – several are work friends who just had babies, so they were particularly interested in your recommendations on how to save for a new child." D.C.

Wonderful Morgan House Interview!

The Best 3 Charts We Recommend

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In This EditionHow to Predict a RecessionWhat’s the best time to retire? The answer is easy.Latest PodcastTestimonial

In This Edition
How to Predict a Recession
What’s the best time to retire? The answer is easy.
Latest Podcast
Testimonial